Intrinsic Analysis: Reshaping Purchasing Decisions — a framework for multi-iterative material composition and intrinsic valuation modeling.
A quantitative methodology for detecting mispriced assets in B2C and B2B auctions. Combines iterative regression, probabilistic estimation of intrinsic value under uncertainty, and density-based cross-validation to isolate arbitrage-quality signal from noise — first applied to precious-metals auctions (gold, silver, platinum), then extended to branded consumer goods and electronics.
- Iterative regression that home-fits an intrinsic-value model by down-weighting outlier auctions until residuals go random.
- Probabilistic intrinsic value: weight, purity, and spot-price treated as random variables → confidence intervals + P(final price < intrinsic value) per lot.
- Density-based cross-validation — model selection judged on how predicted vs. actual distributions align, not only aggregate error.
- Case work across gold, silver, and platinum auctions showing where the winner's curse inverts into structural undervaluation.
- Extensions to branded consumer goods (sneakers, handbags) and electronics resale, plus an eBay / Heritage / ShopGoodwill implementation blueprint.
- Iteratively reweighted least squares (IRLS-style)
- Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty in weight / purity
- Density-based cross-validation
- Auction-microstructure analysis
- eBay FindItemsAdvanced + PlaceOffer API pipeline
